Cortisol Outperforms Novel Cardiovascular, Inflammatory, and Neurohumoral Biomarkers in the Prediction of Outcome in Acute Pancreatitis

Objectives The aims of this study were to assess whether copeptin, pro-atrial natriuretic peptide, proadrenomedullin, and cortisol are associated with disease severity in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) and to compare their ability in predicting organ failure or death. Methods From April 2011 to January 2015, 142 patients with AP were included in this prospective single-center study and observed for 4 days. Disease severity was rated by the Atlanta 1992 and 2012 criteria and organ failure by the modified Marshall score. The aforementioned laboratory markers, C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin were measured. Results Patients with moderate to severe AP showed significantly higher plasma concentrations of all biomarkers than did those with mild AP. Overall, 30 organ failures or deaths occurred. All biomarkers except cortisol had only modest discriminatory ability, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) between 0.44 and 0.66. Cortisol showed an AUC of 0.78 compared with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score with an AUC of 0.75. Conclusions Cortisol was the best predictor of organ failure or death. All biomarkers were associated with disease severity to a similar degree as C-reactive protein, the criterion-standard marker in AP. Further studies are warranted to define their clinical role.