Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020

被引：45

作者：

Guzzetta, Giorgio ^{[1
]}

Poletti, Piero ^{[1
]}

Ajelli, Marco ^{[1
]}

Trentini, Filippo ^{[1
]}

Marziano, Valentina ^{[1
]}

Cereda, Danilo ^{[2
]}

Tirani, Marcello ^{[2
,3
]}

Diurno, Giulio ^{[2
]}

Bodina, Annalisa ^{[2
]}

Barone, Antonio ^{[2
]}

Crottogini, Lucia ^{[2
]}

Gramegna, Maria ^{[2
]}

Melegaro, Alessia ^{[4
]}

Merler, Stefano ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Bruno Kessler Fdn, Trento, Italy

[2] UO Prevenz, Hlth, Milan, Italy

[3] Hlth Protect Agcy Pavia, Dept Hyg & Prevent Med, Pavia, Italy

[4] Bocconi Univ, Dondena Ctr Res Social Dynam & Publ Policy, Milan, Italy

来源：

EUROSURVEILLANCE | 2020年 / 25卷 / 12期

基金：

欧盟地平线“2020”;

关键词：

D O I：

10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293

中图分类号：

R51 [传染病];

学科分类号：

100401 ;

摘要：

Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a modelbased evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CO): 147,717-459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% Crl: 22,250-67,63z) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.

引用

页码：2 / 5

页数：4

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