Northern Hemisphere drought risk in a warming climate

被引：111

作者：

Balting, Daniel F. ^{[1
]}

AghaKouchak, Amir ^{[2
,3
]}

Lohmann, Gerrit ^{[1
,4
]}

Ionita, Monica ^{[1
,5
]}

机构：

[1] Alfred Wegener Inst, D-27570 Bremerhaven, Germany

[2] Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Irvine, CA USA

[3] Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA USA

[4] Univ Bremen, Phys Dept, D-28359 Bremen, Germany

[5] Romanian Acad, Emil Racovita Inst Speleol, Cluj Napoca 400006, Romania

来源：

NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE | 2021年 / 4卷 / 01期

关键词：

PRECIPITATION; SHIFT; CMIP5;

D O I：

10.1038/s41612-021-00218-2

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Drought frequency and severity are projected to increase in the future, but the changes are expected to be unevenly distributed across the globe. Based on multi-model simulations under three different future emissions and shared socioeconomic pathways, we show that a significant drought intensification is expected in dry regions, whereby the severity depends on greenhouse gas emissions and development pathways. The drought hotspots are located in the sub-tropical regions where a moderate to extreme summer drought in today's climate is expected to become a new normal by the end of the 21st century under the warmest scenario. On average, under the warmest future scenario, the drought occurrence rate is projected to be 100% higher than that of the low emission scenario. Further, for the regions which are currently less affected by long-lasting droughts, such as the European continent, climate models indicate a significant increase in drought occurrence probability under the warmest future scenario.

引用

页数：13

共 69 条

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