A flexible long-term load forecasting approach based on new dynamic simulation theory - GSIM

Load forecasting is a difficult task because of the complex relations existing in the load and the load-affecting factors. This paper presents a flexible long-term load forecasting method based on a new dynamic theory - General Simulation (GSIM) theory that can treat two kinds of logical and intuitive information simultaneously and integrally. We divide the relations of factors affecting load demand into functional relations and impact relations. Owing to describing the functional relations by functional formula and impact relations by impact matrix, we can consider both of the relations as a whole simultaneously in our load model. The successful load forecasting results prove the possibility of improving the forecasting accuracy of conventional approaches. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.