Long-term dynamics of catabolic plasmids introduced to a microbial community in a polluted environment: a mathematical model

The long-term dynamics of mobile plasmids in natural environments are unclear. This is the first study of the long-term dynamics of introduced plasmids with xenobiotic degradation abilities using a mathematical model that describes the horizontal gene transfer (HGT) of plasmids into indigenous bacteria via conjugation. We focussed on negative feedback between the spread of plasmids and their selective advantage, i.e. the severe competition between plasmid-bearing and plasmid-free bacteria resulting from a decrease in xenobiotic concentration caused by the gene expression of plasmids, favoring plasmid-free bacteria. Two types of HGT enhanced the persistence of plasmids and the degradation of the xenobiotic in different conditions: a relatively low rate of 'intergeneric HGT' from introduced to indigenous bacteria and a high rate of 'intraindigenous HGT' from indigenous to indigenous bacteria. In addition, when the indigenous resource supply rate was high and when the cost of bearing plasmids was low, both types of HGT made large contributions to xenobiotic degradation compared to the contribution of vertical transfer via plasmid replication within the introduced host population. Initial conditions were also important; a higher initial density of introduced plasmid-bearing bacteria led to a lower degradation rate over a long time scale.