Long-term care is increasingly concentrated in the last years of life: a change from 2000 to 2011

Background: The use of long-term care (LTC) is common in very old age and in the last years of life. It is not known how the use pattern is changing as death is being postponed to increasingly old age. The aim is to analyze the association between the use of LTC and approaching death among old people and the change in this association from 2000 to 2011. Methods: The data were derived from national registers. The study population consists of 315 458 case-control pairs. Cases (decedents) were those who died between 2000 and 2011 at the age of 70 years or over in Finland. The matched controls (survivors) lived at least 2 years longer. Use of LTC was studied for the last 730 days for decedents and for the same calendar days for survivors. Conditional logistic regression analyses were performed to test the association of LTC use with decedent status and year. Results: The difference in LTC use between decedents and survivors was smallest among the oldest (OR 9.91 among youngest, 4.96 among oldest). The difference widened from 2000 to 2011 (OR of interaction of LTC use and year increased): use increased or held steady among decedents, but decreased among survivors. Conclusions: The use of LTC became increasingly concentrated in the last years of life during the study period. The use of LTC is also common among the oldest survivors. As more people live to very old age, the demand for LTC will increase.