Risk-based agricultural water allocation under multiple uncertainties

被引:38
作者
Li, Mo [1 ,2 ]
Fu, Qiang [1 ,2 ]
Singh, Vijay P. [3 ,4 ,5 ]
Liu, Dong [1 ,2 ]
Gong, Xinglong [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Northeast Agr Univ, Sch Water Conservancy & Civil Engn, Harbin 150030, Heilongjiang, Peoples R China
[2] Northeast Agr Univ, Key Lab Effect Utilizat Agr Water Resources, Minist Agr, Harbin 150030, Heilongjiang, Peoples R China
[3] Texas A&M Univ, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
[4] Texas A&M Univ, Zachry Dept Civil Engn, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
[5] UAE Univ, Natl Water Ctr, Al Ain, U Arab Emirates
基金
中国博士后科学基金; 黑龙江省自然科学基金;
关键词
Agricultural water allocation; Optimization; Conditional-value-at-risk; Random-boundary intervals; Multiple uncertainty; Model performance; RESOURCES SYSTEMS; PROGRAMMING-MODEL; DECISION-MAKING; MANAGEMENT; OPTIMIZATION; IRRIGATION;
D O I
10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106105
中图分类号
S3 [农学(农艺学)];
学科分类号
0901 ;
摘要
A risk-based interval-stochastic optimization modelling approach is developed for agricultural water allocation in response to the complexity arising from uncertainties and risk in agricultural water management systems. The approach comprises conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) model, inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) model with imprecise probabilities (IPs), and random-boundary intervals (RBIs) within a general framework. The approach can simultaneously balance expected benefits, penalties, and risks from agricultural water allocation, and can address uncertainties of agricultural water supply and demand in the form of probability distributions and intervals with random boundaries. As demonstrated in Hulan River irrigation area, northeast China, the objective of the approach is to allocate limited agricultural water resources to make a trade-off between various subareas under different risk-aversion levels and possible runoff discharges. Most inputs to the approach are expressed as interval numbers that are generated by statistical simulation, based on which various agricultural water allocation schemes are obtained. Irrigation water performance based on the optimal results are also analyzed. Results validate the applicability of the approach incorporating multiple uncertainties and risk-aversion measures in optimization models, and generating agricultural water allocation schemes in the form of interval numbers.
引用
收藏
页数:12
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