Climate change may impair electricity generation and economic viability of future Amazon hydropower

被引：30

作者：

Almeida, Rafael M. ^{[1
,14
,17
]}

Fleischmann, Ayan S. ^{[2
]}

Breda, Joao P. F. ^{[2
]}

Cardoso, Diego S. ^{[3
,15
,16
]}

Angarita, Hector ^{[4
]}

Collischonn, Walter ^{[2
]}

Forsberg, Bruce ^{[5
]}

Garcia-Villacorta, Roosevelt ^{[1
]}

Hamilton, Stephen K. ^{[6
,7
,8
]}

Hannam, Phillip M. ^{[9
]}

Paiva, Rodrigo ^{[2
]}

Poff, N. LeRoy ^{[10
,11
]}

Sethi, Suresh A. ^{[12
]}

Shi, Qinru ^{[13
]}

Gomes, Carla P. ^{[13
]}

Flecker, Alexander S. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Cornell Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA

[2] Univ Fed Rio Grande do Sul, Inst Hydraul Res, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil

[3] Cornell Univ, Dyson Sch Appl Econ & Management, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA

[4] Stanford Univ, Dept Biol, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[5] Vermont Dept Environm Conservat, Montpelier, VT USA

[6] Michigan State Univ, WK Kellogg Biol Stn, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA

[7] Michigan State Univ, Dept Integrat Biol, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA

[8] Cary Inst Ecosyst Studies, Millbrook, NY USA

[9] Johns Hopkins Univ, Inst Sustainable Energy Policy, Baltimore, MD 21218 USA

[10] Colorado State Univ, Dept Biol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA

[11] Univ Canberra, Inst Appl Ecol, Canberra, ACT, Australia

[12] Cornell Univ, US Geol Survey, NY Cooperat Fish & Wildlife Res Unit, Dept Nat Resources, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA

[13] Cornell Univ, Inst Computat Sustainabil, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA

[14] Univ Texas Rio Grande Valley, Sch Earth Environm & Marine Sci, Edinburg, TX 78539 USA

[15] Univ Geneva, Geneva Sch Econ & Management, Geneva, Switzerland

[16] Purdue Univ, Agr Econ Dept, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA

[17] 1201 West Univ Dr, Edinburg, TX 78539 USA

来源：

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS | 2021年 / 71卷

关键词：

Hydroelectricity; Levelized cost of electricity; Streamflow; Environmental change; Energy policy; ENERGY; VULNERABILITY; BRAZIL; POWER; ADAPTATION; EXPANSION; IMPACTS; BASIN; DAMS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102383

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Numerous hydropower facilities are under construction or planned in tropical and subtropical rivers worldwide. While dams are typically designed considering historic river discharge regimes, climate change is likely to induce large-scale alterations in river hydrology. Here we analyze how future climate change will affect river hydrology, electricity generation, and economic viability of > 350 potential hydropower dams across the Amazon, Earth's largest river basin and a global hotspot for future hydropower development. Midcentury projections for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios show basin-wide reductions of river discharge (means, 13 and 16%, respectively) and hydropower generation (19 and 27%). Declines are sharper for dams in Brazil, which harbors 60% of the proposed projects. Climate change will cause more frequent low-discharge interruption of hydropower generation and less frequent full-capacity operation. Consequently, the minimum electricity sale price for projects to break even more than doubles at many proposed dams, rendering much of future Amazon hydropower less competitive than increasingly lower cost renewable sources such as wind and solar. Climate-smart power systems will be fundamental to support environmentally and financially sustainable energy development in hydropower-dependent regions.

引用

页数：10

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