Mechanism of Land Subsidence Mutation in Beijing Plain under the Background of Urban Expansion

Under the background of over-exploitation of groundwater and urban expansion, the land subsidence in the Beijing Plain has dramatically increased recently, and has demonstrated obvious mutation characteristics. Firstly, this paper used the land-use transfer matrix (LUTM) to quantify the urban expansion of Beijing, from 1990 to 2015. Secondly, the gravity center migration model (GCM) and standard deviation ellipse (SDE) methods were employed in order to quantitatively reveal the response relationship between urban expansion and land subsidence in the study area. Finally, the research innovatively combines multi-disciplinary (remote sensing, geophysical prospecting, spatial analysis, and hydrogeology), to analyze the mechanism of land subsidence mutation in the Beijing Plain, at multiple scales. The results showed the following: 1. The development direction of the urban expansion and the subsidence bowl (subsidence rate > 50 mm/year) were highly consistent, with values of 116.8 degrees and 113.3 degrees, respectively. 2. At the regional scale, the overall spatial distribution of subsidence mutations is controlled by the geological conditions, and the subsidence mutation time was mainly in 2005 and 2015. The area where mutation occurred in 2005 was basically located in the subsidence bowls, and the correlation between the confined water level and the subsidence rate was relatively high (r > 0.62). The area where the settlement mutation occurred in 2015, was mainly located outside the subsidence bowls, and the correlation between the confined water level and the subsidence rate was relatively low (r < 0.71). 3. In the typical subsidence area, the subsidence mutation occurred mostly in the places where the stratigraphic density is reduced, due to human activities (such as groundwater exploitation). Human activities caused the reduction in stratigraphic density, at 20 m and 90 m vertical depth in urban and rural areas, respectively. 4. At the local scale, clusters of subsidence mutation were located in the fault buffer zone, with a lateral influence range of nearly 1 km in Tongzhou. The scattered settlement mutation is distributed as a spot pattern, and the affected area is relatively small, which basically includes high-rise buildings.