21st Century Projections of Extreme Precipitation Indicators for Cyprus

被引:15
作者
Zittis, George [1 ]
Bruggeman, Adriana [2 ]
Camera, Corrado [3 ]
机构
[1] Cyprus Inst, Climate & Atmosphere Res Ctr, CY-2121 Nicosia, Cyprus
[2] Cyprus Inst, Energy Environm & Water Res Ctr, CY-2121 Nicosia, Cyprus
[3] Univ Milan, Dipartimento Sci Terra A Desio, I-20133 Milan, Italy
基金
欧盟地平线“2020”;
关键词
climate change; Cyprus; Mediterranean; WRF; temperature; precipitation; dynamical downscaling; extremes; CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS; EURO-CORDEX; CONVECTION; MODEL; TEMPERATURE; INDEXES; TRENDS;
D O I
10.3390/atmos11040343
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
According to observational and model-based studies, the eastern Mediterranean region is one of the most prominent climate-change hotspots in the world. The combined effect of warming and drying is expected to augment the regional impacts of global warming. In addition to changes in mean climatic conditions, global warming is likely to induce changes in several aspects of extreme rainfall such as duration and magnitude. In this context, we explore the impact of climate change on precipitation with the use of several indicators. We focus on Cyprus, a water-stressed island located in the eastern Mediterranean Basin. Our results are derived from a new high-resolution simulation for the 21st century, which is driven by a "business-as-usual" scenario. In addition to a strong temperature increase (up to 4.1 degrees C), our analysis highlights that, on average for the island, most extreme precipitation indicators decrease, suggesting a transition to much drier conditions. The absolute daily rainfall maxima exhibit strong local variability, indicating the need for high resolution simulations to understand the potential impacts on future flooding.
引用
收藏
页数:15
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