Development and validation of nomograms for predicting preterm delivery

被引：23

作者：

Allouche, Mickael ^{[1
]}

Huissoud, Cyril ^{[2
]}

Guyard-Boileau, Beatrice ^{[1
]}

Rouzier, Roman ^{[3
]}

Parant, Olivier ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Ctr Hosp Univ Toulouse, Serv Gynecol Obstet, Hop Paule Viguier, F-31059 Toulouse, France

[2] Hosp Civils Lyon, Hop Croix Rousse, Serv Gynecol Obstet, Lyon, France

[3] Hop Tenon, Assistance Publ Hop Paris, Serv Gynecol Obstet, F-75970 Paris, France

来源：

AMERICAN JOURNAL OF OBSTETRICS AND GYNECOLOGY | 2011年 / 204卷 / 03期

关键词：

in utero transfer; nomogram; perinatal network; tertiary care center; threatened preterm delivery; FETAL FIBRONECTIN; PREMATURE DELIVERY; VAGINAL SECRETIONS; RISK; RECURRENCE; CERVIX;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ajog.2010.09.030

中图分类号：

R71 [妇产科学];

学科分类号：

100211 ;

摘要：

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a statistical model for predicting risk of preterm delivery after in utero transfer for threatened preterm delivery in tertiary care centers. STUDY DESIGN: This study was an observational study including a total of 906 patients transferred for threatened preterm delivery at Paule-de-Viguier and Croix-Rousse University Hospitals. Clinical and sonographic data from 1 series were used to construct logistic regression models for predicting preterm delivery and were validated on an independent series. An Internet-based tool was developed to facilitate the use of the nomograms. RESULTS: Based on multivariate analyses, 2 nomograms were built: 1 to predict delivery within 48 hours after transfer and 1 to predict delivery before 32 weeks. Discrimination and calibration of the predictive models were good when applied to the validation set (concordance index 0.73 and 0.72, respectively). CONCLUSION: We developed and validated nomograms to predict the individual probability of preterm birth after transfer for threatened preterm delivery.

引用

页数：8

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