Rate and risk predictors for development of self-reported type-2 diabetes mellitus over a 5-year period: the SHIELD study

Aims: This investigation determined the proportion of adults newly diagnosed as having type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and ascertained risk predictors for development of self-reported T2DM. Methods: The US Study to Help Improve Early evaluation and management of risk factors Leading to Diabetes (SHIELD) survey was a 5-year longitudinal study of adults with and without diabetes mellitus. Adults completed a baseline health questionnaire in 2004 and =1 annual follow-up survey through 2009. Respondents with no self-reported diagnosis of diabetes at baseline were followed to measure rate of and assess risk factors for development of T2DM over 5 years. Results: Among 8582 respondents without diabetes at baseline, 622 (7.2%) reported a diagnosis of T2DM over the subsequent 5 years. Increasing age, family history of T2DM, body mass index =30 kg/m2, abdominal obesity, excessive thirst, asthma, gestational diabetes and high blood sugar without diabetes significantly increased the risk of developing T2DM (p < 0.05 for each). Good to excellent health status and self-reported circulatory problems decreased the risk (p < 0.05 for each). Conclusions: Among this representative US adult population, the rate of developing T2DM was 7.2% over 5 years. Predictors of T2DM diagnosis identified in this analysis were readily obtainable via self-report.