Scoring systems to assess relapse risk in alcohol use disorder presenting for early liver transplantation: A systematic review

Objective: Early liver transplantation (LT) is considered for patients with alcohol use disorder (AUD) despite limited sober time when acute mortality risk from liver disease is high. The objective of this paper is to find psychosocial tools that do not rely on extended sober time and predict alcohol relapse post-LT. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of Pubmed, Embase, and Scopus for studies testing psychosocial tools that used numeric scoring to predict post-LT alcohol relapse. Tools that afforded points for length of sobriety were excluded. Each study was analyzed for its clinical context, post-LT relapse outcomes and predictive validity. Results: Five scoring systems across fourteen samples showed varied validity in predicting post-LT alcohol relapse. Relapse to any alcohol use after LT revealed an average relapse rate of 23%. Most scoring systems were understudied but four of five provided cut-off scores with high negative predictive values for relapse. Conclusion: Scoring systems may have a place in candidate selection but the data on cut-off scores and predictability are still lacking for their use alone in high stakes LT selection. Larger studies with prospective scoring and standardized follow ups for relapse post-LT will better allow the predictive validity of these psychosocial tools to be compared.