MCDA and Risk Analysis in Transport Infrastructure Appraisals: the Rail Baltica Case

被引：31

作者：

Ambrasaite, Inga ^{[1
]}

Barfod, Michael B. ^{[1
]}

Salling, Kim B. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Tech Univ Denmark DTU, Dept Transport, DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark

来源：

STATE OF THE ART IN THE EUROPEAN QUANTITATIVE ORIENTED TRANSPORTATION AND LOGISTICS RESEARCH, 2011: 14TH EURO WORKING GROUP ON TRANSPORTATION & 26TH MINI EURO CONFERENCE & 1ST EUROPEAN SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE ON AIR TRANSPORT | 2011年 / 20卷

关键词：

Decision Support Systems; Cost-Benefit Analysis; Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis; Composite Modelling Assessment; Risk Analysis; PROJECTS; MODEL;

D O I：

10.1016/j.sbspro.2011.08.103

中图分类号：

U [交通运输];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0823 ;

摘要：

This paper sets out a decision support system (DSS), COSIMA, involving the combination of cost-benefit analysis and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for transport infrastructure appraisals embracing both economic and strategic impacts. However, some shortcomings appear in the methodology regarding the uncertainties embedded within the criteria weights in the MCDA-part of COSIMA. Therefore, this paper presents the perspective of introducing risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to the weighting profile in the MCDA-part. The DSS is presented through a case study concerning alternatives for the construction of the Rail Baltica railway line through the Baltic countries and Poland. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of the Organizing Committee.

引用

页数：10

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