The role of urbanization in the flooding and surface water chemistry of Puerto Rico's mangroves

In this study, water level models are constructed to characterize mangrove flooding across urban gradients in Puerto Rico. The most urban sites exhibited 95% longer hydroperiods, 23% lower flood frequencies, and 110% lower depths than the least urban sites. Rainfall importance was explained more by geomorphology and tidal connectivity than by urbanization, but there was evidence for changes in tidal amplitudes along the urban gradient. Relationships between surface water chemical metrics and land cover contradicted previous studies by suggesting lower nutrients and biochemical oxygen demand with increasing urbanization. However, much of this changed with the exclusion of potential outlier sites, as well as under different statistical comparisons. These results reinforce the understanding that the most important drivers of urban mangrove hydrology and water quality in Puerto Rico are likely geomorphology and tidal connectivity, with some influence from surrounding land cover. Results should be considered alongside the reported errors stemming from digital elevation and rainfall response models.