The product value of serum albumin and prothrombin time activity could be a useful biomarker for severity prediction in AP: An ordinal retrospective study

Aim: To appraise the predictive function of 'the product value of serum albumin and prothrombin time activity' (PAA) on admission for the organ failure related events of acute pancreatitis (AP). Background: 789 patients with AP were included in this retrospective study. 468 patients generated transient organ failure (TOF). 242 were diagnosed with persistent organ failure (POF), of which 63 patients died. Study: All the values of laboratory parameters were measured upon admission to hospital. Dunnett'T3 test, Uni- and multi-variate ordinal logistic regression were used. ROC curve was utilized to evaluate the ultimate predictive values. Results: Among the patients with 4 different levels of severity of acute pancreatitis, PAA observably reduced as the disease aggravated (32.20 vs 29.56 vs 23.54 vs 17.89). PAA was also an independent risk factor for the aggravation of AP (OR: 0.873, 95% CI: 0.848, 0.899; p < 0.01). The Area Under the Curve (AUC) of PAA for OF was 0.828 (0.783, 0.872), 0.828 for POF (0.790, 0.865) and 0.905 for death cases (0.862, 0.948). Conclusion: The product value of serum albumin and prothrombin time activity is a good predictor of the severity, especially the events related to organ failure of acute pancreatitis. (C) 2019 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.