The changing water cycle: impacts of an evolving supply and demand landscape on urban water reliability in the Bay Area

The San Francisco Bay Area is no stranger to the emerging water challenges of climate change and population growth. As California bounces back from one of the most severe droughts in the state's history, utilities are forced to look for more resilient ways to manage their water resources. In the search for enhanced water reliability and resiliency, water providers must identify viable and innovative ways to increase water supplies and decrease demands. These decisions will be highly dependent on local characteristics, and the population dynamics that greatly affect supply, demand, and adaptation capacity in each region. This article explores the evolving supply and demand dynamics in 26 interconnected water utilities in the Bay Area. These utilities reflect not only the challenges that much of the state is facing due to the ongoing drought, but also the stresses of a growing population and shifting socioeconomic characteristics. The region has made significant investments in water efficiency and conservation that have helped increase resilience during the current drought, but conservation can only go so far and many uncertainties remain about future directions for supply and demand management. We explore: (1) how the supply and demand landscapes have evolved in these utilities over the past few decades, (2) what the main drivers have been, and (3) identify opportunities for the region to move forward in response to changing dynamics. The result is a holistic perspective that can help inform water managers and policy makers in preparation for the future. (C) 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.