Different transmission patterns in the early stages of the influenza A(H1N1) v pandemic: A comparative analysis of 12 European countries

被引：30

作者：

Flasche, Stefan ^{[1
,3
]}

Hens, Niel ^{[8
,9
,10
]}

Boelle, Pierre-Yves ^{[18
,19
]}

Mossong, Joel ^{[4
]}

van Ballegooijen, W. Marijn ^{[7
]}

Nunes, Baltazar ^{[16
]}

Rizzo, Caterina ^{[11
]}

Popovici, Florin ^{[14
]}

Santa-Olalla, Patricia

Hruba, Frantiska ^{[6
]}

Parmakova, Kremena ^{[12
]}

Baguelin, Marc ^{[1
,2
]}

van Hoek, Albert Jan ^{[1
]}

Desenclos, Jean-Claude ^{[5
]}

Bernillon, Pascale ^{[5
]}

Larrauri Camara, Amparro ^{[17
]}

Wallinga, Jacco ^{[7
,15
]}

Asikainen, Tommi

White, Peter J. ^{[1
,13
]}

Edmunds, W. John ^{[1
,2
]}

Arias, P.

Avdicova, M. ^{[6
]}

Bella, A. ^{[11
]}

Bermingham, A. ^{[1
]}

Carreira, M.

Catarino, J.

Cucuiu, R. ^{[14
]}

Declich, S. ^{[11
]}

Dias, C. ^{[16
]}

Donker, T. ^{[7
]}

Even, J. ^{[4
]}

Fonteneau, L. ^{[5
]}

Furtado, C. ^{[16
]}

Gastellu-Etchegorry, M. ^{[5
]}

Guiomar, R. ^{[16
]}

Gutierrez, I. ^{[23
,24
]}

Hahne, S. J. ^{[7
]}

van der Hoek, W. ^{[7
]}

van den Kerkhof, H.

Kremer, J. ^{[20
]}

Koopmans, M. ^{[7
]}

Kurchatova, A. ^{[12
]}

Leon, L. ^{[5
]}

van der Lubben, M. I. ^{[7
]}

de Mateo Ontanon, S. ^{[17
]}

Meijer, A. ^{[7
]}

Nogueira, P. ^{[16
]}

Opp, M. ^{[4
]}

Paixao, E. ^{[16
]}

Pebody, R. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Hlth Protect Agcy, Ctr Infect, London NW9 5EQ, England

[2] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Math Modelling Infect Dis, London WC1, England

[3] Univ Strathclyde, Dept Math & Stat, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland

[4] Natl Hlth Lab, Luxembourg, Luxembourg

[5] Inst Veille Sanit, Paris, France

[6] Reg Author Publ Hlth, Banska Bystrica, Slovakia

[7] Ctr Infect Dis Control Netherlands, Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm RIVM, Bilthoven, Netherlands

[8] Hasselt Univ, Interuniv Inst Biostat & Stat Bioinformat, Diepenbeek, Belgium

[9] Univ Antwerp, Ctr Evaluat Vaccinat, Vaccine & Infect Dis Inst, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium

[10] Univ Antwerp, Ctr Hlth Econ Res & Modeling Infect Dis, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium

[11] Inst Super Sanita, Natl Ctr Epidemiol Surveillance & Hlth Promot, Rome, Italy

[12] Natl Ctr Infect & Parasit Dis, Sofia, Bulgaria

[13] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, MRC Ctr Outbreak Anal & Modelling, London SW7 2AZ, England

[14] Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Bucharest, Romania

[15] Univ Med Ctr Utrecht, Div Julius Ctr Hlth Sci & Primary Care, Utrecht, Netherlands

[16] Inst Nacl Saude Dr Ricardo Jorge, Dept Epidemiol, Lisbon, Portugal

[17] Inst Hlth Carlos III, Natl Ctr Epidemiol, Madrid, Spain

[18] INSERM, U707, Paris, France

[19] Univ Paris 06, UMR S 707, Paris, France

[20] Inst Immunol, Luxembourg, Luxembourg

[21] Catholic Univ Louvain, Rega Inst Med Res, Lab Clin & Epidemiol Virol, Dept Microbiol & Immunol, B-3000 Louvain, Belgium

[22] Hlth Inspect, Luxembourg, Luxembourg

[23] European Ctr Dis Prevent & Control, European Programme Intervent Epidemiol Training E, Stockholm, Sweden

[24] Sci Inst Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Brussels, Belgium

[25] Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, Netherlands

来源：

EPIDEMICS | 2011年 / 3卷 / 02期

基金：

英国医学研究理事会;

关键词：

Swine-origin influenza A H1N1 virus; Pandemics; Europe; Seasonality; Statistical models; Absolute humidity; SURVEILLANCE; INFECTION;

D O I：

10.1016/j.epidem.2011.03.005

中图分类号：

R51 [传染病];

学科分类号：

100401 ;

摘要：

Following the emergence of a novel strain of influenza A(H1N1) in Mexico and the United States in April 2009, its epidemiology in Europe during the summer was limited to sporadic and localised outbreaks. Only the United Kingdom experienced widespread transmission declining with school holidays in late July. Using statistical modelling where applicable we explored the following causes that could explain this surprising difference in transmission dynamics: extinction by chance, differences in the susceptibility profile, age distribution of the imported cases, differences in contact patterns, mitigation strategies, school holidays and weather patterns. No single factor was able to explain the differences sufficiently. Hence an additive mixed model was used to model the country-specific weekly estimates of the effective reproductive number using the extinction probability, school holidays and weather patterns as explanatory variables. The average extinction probability, its trend and the trend in absolute humidity were found to be significantly negatively correlated with the effective reproduction number - although they could only explain about 3% of the variability in the model. By comparing the initial epidemiology of influenza A (H1N1) across different European countries, our analysis was able to uncover a possible role for the timing of importations (extinction probability), mixing patterns and the absolute humidity as underlying factors. However, much uncertainty remains. With better information on the role of these epidemiological factors, the control of influenza could be improved. (C) 2011 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：125 / 133

页数：9

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