The Influence of the European Semester: Case Study Analysis and Lessons for its Post-Pandemic Transformation*

This paper examines whether and how the European Semester has influenced structural reforms in member states. It does so by analysing the interaction between the Commission and the national bureaucratic and political levels. The paper presents two process-tracing exercises with a focus on those actors that directly worked with the CSRs to assess the political dynamics underpinning the CSR implementation process. First, it examines the more nuanced and indirect effects the Semester had on the liberalization of professions in Italy. Second, it shows how the debate on wage indexation in Belgium turned around over the years and how the Semester was an important factor in introducing reform. The analysis shows the influence of the Semester in terms of issue salience and agenda setting, but it also shows how the Commission can exert real pressure. This pressure may in turn affect the EU's perceived legitimacy, which holds lessons for the Semester's post-pandemic transformation.