Modelling the Australian J-Curve: An ARDL Cointegration Approach

被引：7

作者：

Ivanovski, Kris ^{[1
]}

Churchill, Sefa Awaworyi ^{[2
]}

Nuhu, Ahmed Salim ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Monash Univ, Dept Econ, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[2] RMIT Univ, Sch Econ Finance & Mkt, 445 Swanston St, Melbourne, Vic 3000, Australia

[3] Michigan State Univ, Dept Agr Food & Resource Econ, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA

来源：

ECONOMIC PAPERS | 2020年 / 39卷 / 02期

关键词：

J-curve; ARDL approach; non-linear ARDL approach; Australia; BILATERAL J-CURVE; TRADE BALANCE; DEVALUATION IMPROVE; INFERENCE;

D O I：

10.1111/1759-3441.12277

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This study tests for the existence of the J-curve phenomenon in Australia using quarterly data over the period 1970-2016. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration and error correction methodologies are used to examine the short-run and long-run impacts of the real effective exchange rate on Australia's trade balance. Baseline ARDL estimates do not lend support for the J-curve phenomenon. Sensitivity analyses also support this finding even after controlling for the Global Financial Crisis and asymmetries in exchange rate movements. However, separately investigating the non-resource trade balance, we find evidence of the J-curve effect, highlighting the importance of Australia's resource sector for global export activity.

引用

页码：167 / 184

页数：18

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