Using timing of ice retreat to predict timing of fall freeze-up in the Arctic

被引:72
作者
Stroeve, Julienne C. [1 ,2 ]
Crawford, Alex D. [1 ]
Stammerjohn, Sharon [3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Colorado, Natl Snow & Ice Data Ctr, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
[2] UCL, Ctr Polar Observat & Modelling, London, England
[3] Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
SEA-ICE; LAPTEV SEA; VARIABILITY; FORECAST; SKILL;
D O I
10.1002/2016GL069314
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
Reliable forecasts of the timing of sea ice advance are needed in order to reduce risks associated with operating in the Arctic as well as planning of human and environmental emergencies. This study investigates the use of a simple statistical model relating the timing of ice retreat to the timing of ice advance, taking advantage of the inherent predictive power supplied by the seasonal ice-albedo feedback and ocean heat uptake. Results show that using the last retreat date to predict the first advance date is applicable in some regions, such as Baffin Bay and the Laptev and East Siberian seas, where a predictive skill is found even after accounting for the long-termtrend in both variables. Elsewhere, in the Arctic, there is some predictive skills depending on the year (e.g., Kara and Beaufort seas), but none in regions such as the Barents and Bering seas or the Sea of Okhotsk. While there is some suggestion that the relationship is strengthening over time, this may reflect that higher correlations are expected during periods when the underlying trend is strong.
引用
收藏
页码:6332 / 6340
页数:9
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