Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system

被引:410
作者
Ashwin, Peter [1 ]
Wieczorek, Sebastian [1 ]
Vitolo, Renato [1 ]
Cox, Peter [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Exeter, Math Res Inst, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon, England
来源
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES | 2012年 / 370卷 / 1962期
关键词
rate-dependent tipping point; bifurcation; climate system; SINGULAR PERTURBATION-THEORY; SLOWING-DOWN;
D O I
10.1098/rsta.2011.0306
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Tipping points associated with bifurcations (B-tipping) or induced by noise (N-tipping) are recognized mechanisms that may potentially lead to sudden climate change. We focus here on a novel class of tipping points, where a sufficiently rapid change to an input or parameter of a system may cause the system to 'tip' or move away from a branch of attractors. Such rate-dependent tipping, or R-tipping, need not be associated with either bifurcations or noise. We present an example of all three types of tipping in a simple global energy balance model of the climate system, illustrating the possibility of dangerous rates of change even in the absence of noise and of bifurcations in the underlying quasi-static system.
引用
收藏
页码:1166 / 1184
页数:19
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