Future intensity-duration-frequency curves of Edmonton under climate warming and increased convective available potential energy

A regional climate model called WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) was set up in a two-way, three-domain nested framework to simulate future May to August precipitation of central Alberta, Canada. WRF is forced with climate outputs from four Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the baseline period 1980-2005, and for 2041-2100 based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A quantile-quantile bias correction method and a regional frequency analysis were applied to acquire future grid-based IDF curves for the city of Edmonton. Future trends of air temperature and convective available potential energy (CAPE) are investigated. Future IDF curves are expected to have higher intensities because of projected higher air temperature and atmospheric water vapor, and projected increase in CAPE by 2071-2100. Our results likely mean that under the impact of climate change, the future risk of flooding in Edmonton would increase.