Risk Explicit Interval Linear Programming Model for Uncertainty-Based Nutrient-Reduction Optimization for the Lake Qionghai Watershed

Water quality management is subject to large uncertainties due to inherent randomness in the natural system and vagueness in the decision-making process. For water quality management optimization models, this means that some model coefficients can be represented by probability distributions, while others can be expressed only by ranges. Interval linear programming (ILP) and risk explicit interval linear programming (REILP) models for optimal load reduction at the watershed scale are developed for the management of Lake Qionghai Watershed, China. The optimal solution space of an ILP model is represented using intervals corresponding to the lower and upper bounds of each decision variable. The REILP model extends the ILP model through introducing a risk function and aspiration levels (lambda(pre)) into the model formulation. The REILP model is able to generate practical solutions and trade-offs through solving a series of submodels, minimizing the risk function under different aspiration levels. This is illustrated in the present study by solving 11 submodels corresponding to different aspiration levels. The results show that the ILP model suffers severe limitations in practical decision support, while the REILP model can generate solutions explicitly relating system performance to risk level. Weighing the optimal solutions and corresponding risk factors, decision makers can develop an efficient and practical implementation plan based directly on the REILP solution.