Trends in risk research on dangerous goods transport

This paper analyses risk research literature on dangerous goods transport, comprising risk perspectives and concepts, and how risk is analyzed and managed. The fundamentals of the traditional statistical approach to accident data and risk analysis, the Bayesian approach, and the pros and cons of these two ways of thinking are discussed with respect to the prevailing research. A high level of sharpness and precision related to the use of the uncertainty concept is essential to obtain a good understanding of risk management. The research literature on risk assessment of dangerous goods transport is dominated by area domain considerations and development of risk models directed towards societal safety assessments. The research is normative, describing techniques and aids to place infrastructural restrictions or providing services for the emergency management in case of dangerous goods accidents. We conclude that the prevailing risk perspective adopted is the traditional statistical one, assuming that there exists a true underlying risk. The risks of dangerous goods accident outcomes are assessed against societal risk criteria. Uncertainties and methodological weaknesses are rarely discussed.