Marginal Emissions Factors for the U.S. Electricity System

There is growing interest in reducing emissions from electricity generation in the United States (U.S.). Renewable energy, energy efficiency, and energy conservation are all commonly suggested solutions. Both supply- and demand-side interventions will displace energy-and emissions-from conventional generators. Marginal emissions factors (MEFs) give a consistent metric for assessing the avoided emissions resulting from such interventions. This paper presents the first systematic calculation of MEFs for the U.S. electricity system. Using regressions of hourly generation and emissions data from 2006 through 2011, we estimate regional MEFs for CO2, NOx and SO2, as well as the share of marginal generation from coal-, gas-, and oil-fired generators. Trends in MEFs with respect to system load, time of day, and month are explored. We compare marginal and average emissions factors (AEFs), finding that AEFs may grossly misestimate the avoided emissions resulting from an intervention. We find significant regional differences in the emissions benefits of avoiding one megawatt-hour of electricity: compared to the West, an equivalent energy efficiency measure in the Midwest is expected to avoid roughly 70% more CO2, 12 times more SO2, and 3 times more NOx emissions.