Preoperative predictors of short-term survival after hepatectomy for multinodular hepatocellular carcinoma

AIM: To investigate preoperative factors associated with poor short-term outcome after resection for multinodular hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and to assess the contraindication of patients for surgery. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 162 multinodular HCC patients with Child-Pugh A liver function who underwent surgical resection. The prognostic significance of preoperative factors was investigated by univariate analysis using the log-rank test and by multivariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model. Each independent risk factor was then assigned points to construct a scoring model to evaluate the indication for surgical intervention. A receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was constructed to assess the predictive ability of this system. RESULTS: The median overall survival was 38.3 mo (range: 3-80 mo), while the median disease-free survival was 18.6 mo (range: 1-79 mo). The 1-year mortality was 14%. Independent prognostic risk factors of 1-year death included prealbumin < 170 mg/L [hazard ratio (HR): 5.531, P < 0.001], alkaline phosphatase > 129 U/L (HR: 3.252, P = 0.005), alpha fetoprotein > 20 mu g/L (HR: 7.477, P = 0.011), total tumor size > 8 cm (HR: 10.543; P < 0.001), platelet count < 100 x 10(9)/L (HR: 9.937, P < 0.001), and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase > 64 U/L (HR: 3.791, P < 0.001). The scoring model had a strong ability to predict 1-year survival (area under ROC: 0.925, P < 0.001). Patients with a score >= 5 had significantly poorer short-term outcome than those with a score < 5 (1-year mortality: 62% vs 5%, P < 0.001; 1-year recurrence rate: 86% vs 33%, P < 0.001). Patients with score >= 5 had greater possibility of microvascular invasion (P < 0.001), poor tumor differentiation (P = 0.003), liver cirrhosis with small nodules (P < 0.001), and intraoperative blood transfusion (P = 0.010). CONCLUSION: A composite preoperative scoring model can be used as an indication of prognosis of HCC patients after surgical resection. Resection should be considered with caution in patients with a score >= 5, which indicates a contraindication for surgery. (C) 2012 Baishideng. All rights reserved.