The influence of tidal forcing on groundwater flow and nutrient exchange in a salt marsh-dominated estuary

Data from salt marshes in the U.S. Southeast show that long-term variations in mean water level (MWL) correlate strongly with salt marsh productivity and porewater salinity. Here we used numerical models of tidally-driven groundwater flow to assess the effect of variations in tidal amplitude and MWL on porewater exchange between salt marshes and tidal creeks. We modeled homogeneous and layered stratigraphy and compared flat and sloped topography for the marsh surface. Results are consistent with field observations and showed that increases in tidal amplitude increased groundwater flushing, particularly when increasing the tidal amplitude caused the marsh platform to be inundated at high tide. Increases in MWL caused groundwater flushing to increase if that rise caused greater areas of the marsh to be inundated at high tide. Once the marsh was fully inundated at high tide, further increases in MWL caused groundwater flushing to decrease. Results suggest that small increases in MWL associated with sea level rise could increase nutrient export significantly in marshes with elevations that are equilibrated near mean high water, but rising sea level could decrease the export of nutrients to, and thus fertility in, estuaries adjacent to marshes that are equilibrated lower in the tidal frame. Likewise, macrotidal estuaries are predicted to be subject to much larger groundwater and nutrient exchange than similar microtidal estuaries. We speculate that the early stages of rising relative sea level may significantly impact water quality in estuaries that are not river-dominated by raising the discharge of nutrients from coastal wetlands.