An economy-wide impact assessment of agriculture land reform in South Africa

South Africa has been battling with getting land reform right since the advent of democratic rule in 1994 The need to expedite land reform in the country has given rise to a number of radical approaches, including the topic and controversial expropriation of land without compensation discourse. The simulation results presented in this paper provide nuanced policy options for land redistribution in South Africa in the face of the looming expropriation of land without compensation. The analysis in this paper is specific to agricultural land as opposed to land in general. We carried out scenario simulation through Computable General Equilibrium approach using the modified University of Pretoria General Equilibrium Model (UPGEM), which is solved using GEMPACK solution software. Our simulation revealed that there would be adjustment costs regardless of the option(s) chosen. The Inclusive Scenario came up as the most suitable policy option in terms of minimal adjustment costs and allowing the sector to continue to grow, albeit at a lower rate compared to the status quo. Given that agricultural land reform is imperative in South Africa, policy makers should opt for the policy option that is least disruptive to the economy while achieving the desired outcome of more equitable agricultural land ownership and broader participation in the agricultural sector by the majority in the country. Thus, the Inclusive Scenario was found to be the most suitable policy option for agriculture land reform in South Africa.