A serological scoring system to predict lymph node metastasis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background: Lymph node metastasis (LNM) has widely been recognized as a poor prognostic indicator for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. Preoperative prediction of LNM is important for clinicians to decide on treatment. This study was designed to develop a simple and convenient system to predict LNM. Methods: Consecutive HCC patients who were suspected to have LNM were divided into a training, an internal validation and an external validation cohort. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine the threshold value of the preoperative serological variables. A nomogram visualization system model was then established. Result: Of the 287 patients, there were 31 patients who had LNM (10.8%), and 21 of 203 patients (10.3%) were in the training cohort and 10 of 84 patients (11.9%) in the internal validation cohort. Sixteen of 176 patients (9.1%) in the external validation cohort had LNM. The serological indices including neutrophil/lymphocyte rate, age, platelet, prothrombin time, and total protein, were included in the nomogram. The areas of the ROC curve were 0.846, 0.679 and 0.738 in predicting LNM in the training cohort, the internal validation cohort and the external validation cohort, respectively. Conclusion: The scoring system constructed using the preoperative serological variables predicted LNM in HCC patients.