[1] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England
[2] Univ Hamburg, Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany
[3] Univ Reading, NCAS Climate, Reading, Berks, England
[4] Hadley Ctr, Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England
[5] Univ Reading, Dept Math & Stat, Reading, Berks, England