The limited role of changing age structure in explaining aggregate crime rates

被引：50

作者：

Levitt, SD ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Chicago, Dept Econ, Chicago, IL 60637 USA

来源：

CRIMINOLOGY | 1999年 / 37卷 / 03期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1111/j.1745-9125.1999.tb00497.x

中图分类号：

DF [法律]; D9 [法律];

学科分类号：

0301 ;

摘要：

Changes in the age structure are shown to have a limited impact on aggregate crime rates. Even the dramatic transformation of the age distribution accompanying the baby boom shifted crime rates by no more than 1% per year. Projected changes in the age distribution between 1995 and 2010 will lead to slight declines in per capita crime rates. These results are at odds with recent predictions of an impending demographically driven crime wave. Such predictions have focused exclusively on a rise in juvenile crime and ignored the offsetting decreases among adults.

引用

页码：581 / 597

页数：17