Accurately estimating and formulating the paths of energy-conservation and emission-reduction for industrial sectors is of great significance for the coordinated development of economic growth and environment in China. In this study, considering the influences of short- and long-term energy rebound effects, we estimated the energy-conservation and emission-reduction potential of China's 35 industrial sectors and formulated the implementation paths. Our results show that: (1) under a long-term energy rebound effect impact, for the resource-intensive, labor-intensive, and capital-intensive industries, the industrial sectors with the greatest energy-conservation potential are the manufacture of tobacco, manufacture of textile, wearing apparel and accessories, and the manufacture of general purpose machinery, with cumulative energy-conservations of 14.41, 25.67, and 11.455%, respectively. The industrial sectors with the greatest emission-reduction potential are the extraction of petroleum and natural gas, mining and processing of non-ferrous metal ores, and the manufacture of chemical fibers, with cumulative emission-reductions of 23.54, 35.42, and 22.14%, respectively. (2) Under a short-term energy rebound effect impact, for resource-intensive, labor-intensive, and capital-intensive industries, the industrial sectors with the greatest energy-conservation potential are the manufacture of tobacco, manufacture of textile and manufacture of medicines, with cumulative energy-conservations of 23.56, 28.65, and 15.36%, respectively. The industrial sectors with the greatest emission-reduction potential are the manufacture of tobacco, mining and processing of ferrous metal ores, and smelting and pressing of non-ferrous metals, with cumulative emission-reductions of 27.88, 38.48, and 33.28%, respectively. (3) There are three paths for energy-conservation and emission-reduction for the industrial sectors: the unilateral breakthrough, gradual improvement, that promotes advantages and accounts for disadvantages, and leap forward path. For industrial sectors with a high energy consumption and low carbon emissions, the gradual improvement path that promotes advantages and accounts for disadvantages is suitable. For industrial sectors with low energy consumption and high carbon emissions, the unilateral breakthrough path is suitable. For industrial sectors with high energy consumption and carbon emissions, the leap forward path is suitable. (4) The impacts of investment bias and factor market distortion should be considered when formulating energy-conservation and emission-reduction policies. Our results can provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of energy-conservation and emissions-reduction objectives and policies for China's 35 industrial sectors. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
