Body size declines despite positive directional selection on heritable size traits in a barnacle goose population

Analyses of more than 2000 marked barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) in the largest Baltic colony, Sweden, showed that structurally large females generally produced larger clutches and larger eggs, hatched their broods earlier in the season, and produced more and heavier-young than smaller females. In males, the corresponding relationships between reproductive parameters and structural body size were weaker or nonsignificant. Because structural body size traits have previously been found to be significantly heritable and positively genetically correlated, an increase in mean structural body size of individuals as a response to selection might have been expected. By contrast, we found that the mean adult head length and mean adult tarsus length decreased significantly in the largest colony by approximately 0.7 and 0.5 standard deviations, respectively, in both males and females during the 13-year study period. Environmental factors, such as the amount of rain in different years, were found to affect the availability of high-quality food for growing geese. As a consequence of this temporal variability in the availability of high-quality food, the mean adult structural body size of different cohorts differed by up to 1.3 standard deviations. Comparisons of mean body size of cohorts born in different colonies suggest that the most likely explanation for the body-size decline in the main study colony is that a density-dependent process, which mainly was in effect during the very early phase of colony growth, negatively affected juvenile growth and final size. We conclude that large environmental effects on growth and final structural body size easily can mask microevolutionary responses to selection. Analyses of environmental causes underlying temporal and spatial body size variation should always be considered in the reconstruction and prediction of evolutionary changes in natural populations.