Critical study of prognostic factors in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia: differences in outcome are poorly explained by the most significant prognostic variables

We determined the proportion of survival variability explained by the usual prognostic factors in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) during a prognostic study of 1552 patients enrolled in three consecutive Fralle group protocols (Fralle 83, Fralle 87 and Fralle 89), The event-free survival rates at 5 years were 54.8% (SD 1.9), 43.1% (SD 2.7) and 55.6% (SD 2.2), respectively. In the univariate analysis the following variables were predictive of poor outcome: male gender, elevated leucocytosis (> 50 x 10(9)/l), circulating blastosis, haemoglobin >12 g/dl, platelet count <100 x 10(9)/l, age under 1 year or over 9 years, enlarged mediastinum, nodes, spleen and liver, T phenotype, absence of CD10(+) cells; testicular and meningeal involvement, poor response to induction therapy (CCSG M3), and LDH >400 U/l. Among the cytogenetic features, hyperdiploidy had a protective effect, whereas hypodiploidy, translocation and other structural abnormalities had a negative influence, particularly in cases of t(9;22) or t(4;11). Multivariate analysis summarized the prognostic information in terms of four variables: age, gender, leucocytosis and cytogenetic features. Missing data had little influence on the results. However, despite their significance in the multivariate analysis, these four variables each had very low predictive power (1.1% for gender, 2.0% for age, 3.5% for leucocytosis, and 1.6% for cytogenetic features). Thus, the most significant prognostic factors in childhood ALL each explain no more than 4% of the variability in prognosis, This may explain the disappointing practical value of these factors and underlines the need for prognostic tools in childhood ALL.