Quantifying Climate and Catchment Control on Hydrological Drought in the Continental United States

The evolution of hydrological drought events is a result of complex (nonlinear) interactions between climate and catchment processes. To investigate such nonlinear relationship, we integrated a machine learning modeling framework based on the random forest (RF) algorithms with an interpretation framework to quantify the role of climate and catchment controls on hydrological drought. More particularly, our framework interprets a built RF machine-learning model to identify dominant variables and visualize their functional dependence and interaction effects on hydrological drought characteristics utilizing concepts of minimal depth, interactive depth, and partial dependence. We test our proposed modeling framework based on a set of 652 continental United States catchments with minimal human interference for a period of 1979-2010. Application of this framework indicated presence of three distinct drought regimes, which includes, Regime 1: droughts with longer duration, less frequent and lesser intensity; Regime 2: droughts with moderate duration, moderate frequency, and moderate intensity; and Regime 3: droughts with shorter duration, more frequent, and more intense. RF algorithm was able to accurately model the drought characteristics (intensity, duration, and number of events) for all the three drought regimes as a function of selected variables. It was observed that the type of dominant variables as well as their nonlinear functional relationship with hydrological droughts characteristics can vary between three selected regimes. Our interpretation framework indicated that catchment characteristics have a significant role in controlling the hydrologic drought for catchments (regime 1), whereas both climate and catchment characteristics control hydrological drought in regimes 2 and 3.