A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise

被引：24

作者：

Rohling, Eelco J. ^{[1
,2
]}

Haigh, Ivan D. ^{[2
]}

Foster, Gavin L. ^{[2
]}

Roberts, Andrew P. ^{[1
]}

Grant, Katharine M. ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Earth Sci, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia

[2] Univ Southampton, Natl Oceanog Ctr, Southampton SO14 3ZH, Hants, England

来源：

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 2013年 / 3卷

关键词：

ICE-SHEET; CLIMATE-CHANGE; GLOBAL TEMPERATURE; VOLUME; CONSTRAINTS; VARIABILITY; COLLAPSE; IMPACT;

D O I：

10.1038/srep03461

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

During ice-age cycles, continental ice volume kept pace with slow, multi-millennial scale, changes in climate forcing. Today, rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) increases have outpaced ice-volume responses, likely committing us to > 9 m of long-term sea-level rise (SLR). We portray a context of naturally precedented SLR from geological evidence, for comparison with historical observations and future projections. This context supports SLR of up to 0.9 (1.8) m by 2100 and 2.7 (5.0) m by 2200, relative to 2000, at 68% (95%) probability. Historical SLR observations and glaciological assessments track the upper 68% limit. Hence, modern change is rapid by past interglacial standards but within the range of 'normal' processes. The upper 95% limit offers a useful low probability/high risk value. Exceedance would require conditions without natural interglacial precedents, such as catastrophic ice-sheet collapse, or activation of major East Antarctic mass loss at sustained CO2 levels above 1000 ppmv.

引用

页数：7

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