Prediction of Pollen-Mediated Gene Flow Between Fields of Red Clover (Trifolium pratense)

Pollen-mediated gene flow between red clover fields by bumblebees is predicted by estimating or simulating the parameters in a gene flow model for insect-pollinated crops. Generally, the predicted level of gene flow was found to depend on the visiting bee species and the spatial arrangement of the red clover fields. When the fields are close to each other, the gene flow depends mainly on the typical foraging distance of the visiting bee species, but when the fields are far apart, the gene flow between red clover fields is more sensitive to the distances between red clover fields than to the actual bumblebee species that pollinates the fields. Using the suggested methodology, the gene flow may be predicted in different agricultural scenarios. For example, if the gene flow between red clover fields is mediated by Bombus terrestris and the red clover fields that were assumed to be quadrates with sides of 100 m are separated by 200 m, then the median gene flow is predicted to be 0.17%.