Trajectories of Educational Expectations From Adolescence to Young Adulthood in Finland

The purpose of this person-oriented, 5-wave longitudinal study was to examine the trajectories of educational expectations from adolescence to young adulthood in the context of the expectancy-value theory (Eccles et al., 1983). Altogether, 853 (48% female; M age = 16 years) Finnish adolescents reported their educational expectation, 1st in the last year of comprehensive school and 4 times during the following 5 years. Latent class analysis showed that 5 trajectories of educational expectations fit the data best: stable-university (38%), stable-vocational (18%), stable-polytechnic (24%), increasing-expectations (10%), and decreasing-expectations (10%). In line with the expectancy-value theory, adolescents' academic achievement, socioeconomic status (SES), perception of parents' aspirations for them, and ability-beliefs were all related to their trajectories of educational expectations. For example, the higher the adolescent's SES, perception of parents' educational aspirations, and grade point average (GPA), the more likely the participant was to be in the stable-university trajectory compared to the stable-vocational trajectory. Gender had an indirect effect on the trajectories via GPA. Moreover, participants with higher ability-beliefs were more likely to be in trajectories with high and stable educational expectations compared to the unstable trajectories. The trajectories were related to the participants' educational situation after comprehensive school.