Sensitivity Analysis of Geomechanical Constraints in CO2 Storage to Screen Potential Sites in Deep Saline Aquifers

In order to tackle the exponential rise in global CO2 emissions, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposed a carbon budget of 2,900 Gt to limit the rise in global temperature levels to 2 & DEG;C above the pre-industrial level. Apart from curbing our emissions, carbon sequestration can play a significant role in meeting these ambitious goals. More than 500 Gt of CO2 will need to be stored underground by the end of this century to make a meaningful impact. Global capacity for CO2 storage far exceeds this requirement, the majority of which resides in unexplored deep aquifers. To identify potential storage sites and quantify their storage capacities, prospective aquifers or reservoirs need to be screened based on properties that affect the retention of CO2 in porous rocks. Apart from the total volume of a reservoir, the storage potential is largely constrained by an increase in pore pressure during the early years of injection and by migration of the CO2 plume in the long term. The reservoir properties affect both the pressure buildup and the plume front below the caprock. However, not many studies have quantified these effects. The current analysis computes the effect of rock properties (porosity, permeability, permeability anisotropy, pore compressibility, and formation water salinity) and injection rate on both these parameters by simulating CO2 injection at the bottom of a 2D mesh grid with hydrostatic boundary conditions. The study found that the most significant property in the sensitivity analysis was permeability. Porosity too affected the CO2 plume migration substantially, with higher porosities considerably delaying horizontal and vertical migration. Injection rate impacted both the pressure rise and plume migration consistently. Thus, in screening potential storage sites, we can infer that permeability is the dominant criterion when the pore pressure is closer to the minimum principal stress in the rocks, due to which injection rate needs to be managed with greater caution. Porosity is more significant when the lateral extents of the reservoir limit the storage potential.