Remnant population dynamics in the facultative biennial Carum carvi in fragmented semi-natural grasslands

Transition matrix models were used to examine the population dynamics in the facultative biennial Carum carvi L. in semi-natural grasslands, specifically to assess what life cycle stages are important for population development and to evaluate the effects of environmental stochasticity on population persistence and, hence, the ability to develop remnant populations. The demographic studies were conducted over a 4-year period in three moderately grazed grasslands that differed in onset and duration of grazing. Experimental seed-sowing was also conducted in disturbed and undisturbed plots in the populations. Deterministic and stochastic models yielded overall negative population growth (lambda < 1) for the populations. lambda was sensitive to transitions in the most frequent vegetative stage classes. Elasticity analysis indicated that a large proportion of population growth could be ascribed to the stasis of individuals in the largest vegetative stage class. Life-table response experiment (LTRE) analyses showed also that progression to larger stage classes was important in explaining the between-population variation in lambda. The expected time to extinction was on the order of several decades for the study populations. Seed-sowing indicated that seedling establishment was limited by both seed and micro-site availability. The populations of C. carvi seem to be able to persist for a rather long time in moderately grazed semi-natural grasslands, even in cases where populations are destined to become extinct. The results, thus, indicate that "biennials" are able to maintain remnant populations in managed semi-natural grasslands.