Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections

被引：117

作者：

Alexander, Peter ^{[1
,2
]}

Prestele, Reinhard ^{[3
]}

Verburg, Peter H. ^{[3
]}

Arneth, Almut ^{[4
]}

Baranzelli, Claudia ^{[5
]}

Batista e Silva, Filipe ^{[5
]}

Brown, Calum ^{[1
]}

Butler, Adam ^{[6
]}

Calvin, Katherine ^{[7
]}

Dendoncker, Nicolas ^{[8
]}

Doelman, Jonathan C. ^{[9
]}

Dunford, Robert ^{[10
,11
]}

Engstrom, Kerstin ^{[12
]}

Eitelberg, David ^{[3
]}

Fujimori, Shinichiro ^{[13
]}

Harrison, Paula A. ^{[11
]}

Hasegawa, Tomoko ^{[13
]}

Havlik, Petr ^{[14
]}

Holzhauer, Sascha ^{[1
]}

Humpenoeder, Florian ^{[15
]}

Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris ^{[5
]}

Jain, Atul K. ^{[16
]}

Krisztin, Tamas ^{[14
]}

Kyle, Page ^{[7
]}

Lavalle, Carlo ^{[5
]}

Lenton, Tim ^{[17
]}

Liu, Jiayi ^{[6
]}

Meiyappan, Prasanth ^{[16
]}

Popp, Alexander ^{[15
]}

Powell, Tom ^{[17
]}

Sands, Ronald D. ^{[18
]}

Schaldach, Ruediger ^{[19
]}

Stehfest, Elke ^{[9
]}

Steinbuks, Jevgenijs ^{[20
]}

Tabeau, Andrzej ^{[21
]}

van Meijl, Hans ^{[21
]}

Wise, Marshall A. ^{[7
]}

Rounsevell, Mark D. A. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Edinburgh, Sch GeoSci, Drummond St, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, Midlothian, Scotland

[2] SRUC, Land Econ & Environm Res Grp, West Mains Rd, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, Midlothian, Scotland

[3] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Earth Sci, Environm Geog Grp, De Boelelaan 1087, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands

[4] Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Atmospher Environm Res IMK IFU, Kreuzeckbahnstr 19, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany

[5] European Commiss, Directorate Innovat & Growth B, Terr Dev Unit, Via Fermi 2749, I-21027 Varese, Italy

[6] JCMB, Biomath & Stat Scotland, Kings Bldg, Edinburgh EH9 3JZ, Midlothian, Scotland

[7] Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA

[8] Univ Namur, Dept Geog, Namur Res Grp Sustainable Dev, Rue Bruxelles 61, B-5000 Namur, Belgium

[9] Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy PBL, POB 303, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands

[10] Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, South Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3QY, England

[11] Lancaster Environm Ctr, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Lib Ave, Lancaster LA1 4AP, England

[12] Lund Univ, Dept Geog & Ecosyst Sci, Paradisgatan 2, Lund, Sweden

[13] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan

[14] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Ecosyst Serv & Management Program, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

[15] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany

[16] Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, Urbana, IL 61801 USA

[17] Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Earth Syst Sci, Laver Bldg Level 7,North Pk Rd, Exeter EX4 4QE, Devon, England

[18] Econ Res Serv, Resource & Rural Econ Div, USDA, Washington, DC 20250 USA

[19] Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, Wilhelmshoher Allee 47, D-34109 Kassel, Germany

[20] World Bank, Dev Res Grp, 1818 H St NW, Washington, DC 20433 USA

[21] Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, LEI, POB 29703, NL-2502 LS The Hague, Netherlands

来源：

GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY | 2017年 / 23卷 / 02期

基金：

欧洲研究理事会;

关键词：

cropland; land cover; land use; model inter-comparison; uncertainty; CLIMATE-CHANGE; MODELS; AGRICULTURE; MITIGATION; EMISSIONS;

D O I：

10.1111/gcb.13447

中图分类号：

X176 [生物多样性保护];

学科分类号：

090705 ;

摘要：

Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.

引用

页码：767 / 781

页数：15

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