WHEN AND HOW THE FIGHTING STOPS: EXPLAINING THE DURATION AND OUTCOME OF CIVIL WARS

被引：45

作者：

Brandt, Patrick T. ^{[2
]}

Mason, T. David ^{[1
]}

Gurses, Mehmet ^{[3
]}

Petrovsky, Nicolai ^{[4
]}

Radin, Dagmar ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Univ N Texas, Dept Polit Sci, Denton, TX 76203 USA

[2] Univ Texas Dallas, Sch Econ Polit & Policy Sci, Richardson, TX 75080 USA

[3] Florida Atlantic Univ, Dept Polit Sci, Boca Raton, FL 33431 USA

[4] Cardiff Univ, Cardiff Business Sch, Cardiff CF10 3EU, S Glam, Wales

[5] Mississippi State Univ, Dept Polit Sci & Publ Adm, Mississippi State, MS 39762 USA

来源：

DEFENCE AND PEACE ECONOMICS | 2008年 / 19卷 / 06期

关键词：

Civil war; Conflict resolution; Duration; Competing risks;

D O I：

10.1080/10242690701823267

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Previous research has shown that the duration of a civil war is in part a function of how it ends: in government victory, rebel victory, or negotiated settlement. We present a model of how protagonists in a civil war choose to stop fighting. Hypotheses derived from this theory relate the duration of a civil war to its outcome as well as characteristics of the civil war and the civil war nation. Findings from a competing risk model reveal that the effects of predictors on duration vary according to whether the conflict ended in government victory, rebel victory, or negotiated settlement.

引用

页码：415 / 434

页数：20

共 41 条

[1]

[Anonymous], 2004, Event History Analysis

[2] Killing time: The world politics of civil war duration, 1820-1992 [J].

Balch-Lindsay, D ;

Enterline, AJ .

INTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, 2000, 44 (04) :615-642

[3] Managing Ethnic Civil Wars: Assessing the Determinants of Successful Mediation [J].

Bercovitch, Jacob ;

Derouen, Karl, Jr. .

CIVIL WARS, 2005, 7 (01) :98-116

[4] Duration models and proportional hazards in political science [J].

Box-Steffensmeier, JM ;

Zorn, CJW .

AMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, 2001, 45 (04) :972-988

[5] On economic causes of civil war [J].

Collier, P ;

Hoeffler, A .

OXFORD ECONOMIC PAPERS-NEW SERIES, 1998, 50 (04) :563-573

[6] Greed and grievance in civil war [J].

Collier, P ;

Hoeffler, A .

OXFORD ECONOMIC PAPERS-NEW SERIES, 2004, 56 (04) :563-595

[7] On the duration of civil war [J].

Collier, P ;

Hoeffler, A ;

Söderbom, M .

JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH, 2004, 41 (03) :253-273

[8]

Cowell F.A., 1977, MEASURING INEQUALITY, DOI DOI 10.1136/jech.2004.020651

[9] Paradise is a bazaar? Greed, creed, and governance in civil war, 1989-99 [J].

De Soysa, I .

JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH, 2002, 39 (04) :395-416

[10] The dynamics of civil war duration and outcome [J].

DeRouen, KR ;

Sobek, D .

JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH, 2004, 41 (03) :303-320

← 1 2 3 4 5 →