Extending the SIR epidemic model

被引:113
作者
Satsuma, J
Willox, R
Ramani, A
Grammaticos, B
Carstea, AS
机构
[1] Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Math Sci, Meguro Ku, Tokyo 1538914, Japan
[2] Ecole Polytech, CNRS, UMR 7644, F-91128 Palaiseau, France
[3] Univ Paris 07, GMPIB, F-75251 Paris, France
[4] Inst Phys & Nucl Engn, Bucharest, Romania
基金
日本学术振兴会;
关键词
population dynamics; epidemic; discrete-time; cellular automaton;
D O I
10.1016/j.physa.2003.12.035
中图分类号
O4 [物理学];
学科分类号
0702 ;
摘要
We investigate possible extensions of the susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) epidemic model. We show that there exists a large class of functions representing interaction between the susceptible and infective populations for which the model has a realistic behaviour and preserves the essential features of the classical SIR model. We also present a new discretisation of the SIR model which has the advantage of possessing a conserved quantity, thus making possible the estimation of the non-infected population at the end of the epidemic. A cellular automaton SIR is also constructed on the basis of the discrete-time system. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:369 / 375
页数:7
相关论文
共 5 条
[1]  
Diekmann O., 2000, MATH EPIDEMIOLOGY IN
[2]   Contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics [J].
Kermack, WO ;
McKendrick, AG .
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-CONTAINING PAPERS OF A MATHEMATICAL AND PHYSICAL CHARACTER, 1927, 115 (772) :700-721
[3]  
Murray JD, 1993, MATH BIOL, DOI DOI 10.1007/978-3-662-08542-4
[4]   From soliton equations to integrable cellular automata through a limiting procedure [J].
Tokihiro, T ;
Takahashi, D ;
Matsukidaira, J ;
Satsuma, J .
PHYSICAL REVIEW LETTERS, 1996, 76 (18) :3247-3250
[5]   Epidemic dynamics: discrete-time and cellular automaton models [J].
Willox, R ;
Grammaticos, B ;
Carstea, AS ;
Ramani, A .
PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS, 2003, 328 (1-2) :13-22