Arctic climate changes in the 21st century: Ensemble model estimates accounting for realism in present-day climate simulation

被引:10
作者
Eliseev, A. V. [1 ,2 ]
Semenov, V. A. [1 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Russian Acad Sci, Obukhov Inst Atmospher Phys, Pyzhevsky Per 3, Moscow 119017, Russia
[2] Kazan Volga Reg Fed Univ, Kazan 420000, Russia
[3] Russian Acad Sci, Inst Geog, Pyzhevsky Per 3, Moscow 119017, Russia
基金
俄罗斯科学基金会;
关键词
SEA-ICE; PROJECTION;
D O I
10.1134/S1028334X16110131
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
In the course of forecasting future climate changes in the Arctic Region based on calculations and an ensemble of the state-of-the-art global climate models, the results depend on the method of construction the statistics from the models.
引用
收藏
页码:1183 / 1187
页数:5
相关论文
共 16 条
[1]   Changes in the climate and sea ice of the Northern Hemisphere in the 20th and 21st centuries from data of observations and modeling [J].
Alekseev, G. V. ;
Danilov, A. I. ;
Kattsov, V. M. ;
Kuz'mina, S. I. ;
Ivanov, N. E. .
IZVESTIYA ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS, 2009, 45 (06) :675-686
[2]   A global climate model based, Bayesian climate projection for northern extra-tropical land areas [J].
Arzhanov, Maxim M. ;
Eliseev, Alexey V. ;
Mokhov, Igor I. .
GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE, 2012, 86-87 :57-65
[3]   Role of Polar Amplification in Long-Term Surface Air Temperature Variations and Modern Arctic Warming [J].
Bekryaev, Roman V. ;
Polyakov, Igor V. ;
Alexeev, Vladimir A. .
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2010, 23 (14) :3888-3906
[4]   An ensemble approach to simulate CO2 emissions from natural fires [J].
Eliseev, A. V. ;
Mokhov, I. I. ;
Chernokulsky, A. V. .
BIOGEOSCIENCES, 2014, 11 (12) :3205-3223
[5]   Estimation of Changes in Characteristics of the Climate and Carbon Cycle in the 21st Century Accounting for the Uncertainty of Terrestrial Biota Parameter Values [J].
Eliseev, A. V. .
IZVESTIYA ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS, 2011, 47 (02) :131-153
[6]   Probabilistic multimodel regional temperature change projections [J].
Greene, Arthur M. ;
Goddard, Lisa ;
Lall, Upmanu .
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2006, 19 (17) :4326-4343
[7]   THE POTENTIAL TO NARROW UNCERTAINTY IN REGIONAL CLIMATE PREDICTIONS [J].
Hawkins, Ed ;
Sutton, Rowan .
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2009, 90 (08) :1095-+
[8]   Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial [J].
Hoeting, JA ;
Madigan, D ;
Raftery, AE ;
Volinsky, CT .
STATISTICAL SCIENCE, 1999, 14 (04) :382-401
[9]   Simulation and projection of arctic freshwater budget components by the IPCC AR4 global climate models [J].
Kattsov, Vladimir M. ;
Walsh, John E. ;
Chapman, William L. ;
Govorkova, Veronika A. ;
Pavlova, Tatyana V. ;
Zhang, Xiangdong .
JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY, 2007, 8 (03) :571-589
[10]   Perspectives of Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage in the twenty-first century [J].
Khon, V. C. ;
Mokhov, I. I. ;
Latif, M. ;
Semenov, V. A. ;
Park, W. .
CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2010, 100 (3-4) :757-768