COPEWELL: A Conceptual Framework and System Dynamics Model for Predicting Community Functioning and Resilience After Disasters

被引：76

作者：

Links, Jonathan M. ^{[1
,5
]}

Schwartz, Brian S. ^{[1
,2
]}

Lin, Sen ^{[3
]}

Kanarek, Norma ^{[1
]}

Mitrani-Reiser, Judith ^{[3
]}

Sell, Tara Kirk ^{[1
,8
]}

Watson, Crystal R. ^{[1
,8
]}

Ward, Doug ^{[4
]}

Slemp, Cathy

Burhans, Robert

Gill, Kimberly ^{[6
]}

Igusa, Tak ^{[3
]}

Zhao, Xilei ^{[3
]}

Aguirre, Benigno ^{[6
]}

Trainor, Joseph ^{[6
]}

Nigg, Joanne ^{[6
]}

Inglesby, Thomas ^{[1
,8
]}

Carbone, Eric ^{[7
]}

Kendra, James M. ^{[6
]}

机构：

[1] Johns Hopkins Bloomberg Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth & Engn, Baltimore, MD USA

[2] Johns Hopkins Bloomberg Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Baltimore, MD USA

[3] Johns Hopkins Whiting Sch Engn, Dept Civil Engn, Baltimore, MD USA

[4] Johns Hopkins Sch Educ, Div Publ Safety Leadership, Baltimore, MD USA

[5] Johns Hopkins Univ, Ctr Publ Hlth Preparedness, Baltimore, MD USA

[6] Univ Delaware, Disaster Res Ctr, Newark, DC USA

[7] Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Off Publ Hlth Preparedness & Response, Atlanta, GA USA

[8] Johns Hopkins Univ, Ctr Hlth Secur, Baltimore, MD USA

来源：

DISASTER MEDICINE AND PUBLIC HEALTH PREPAREDNESS | 2018年 / 12卷 / 01期

关键词：

resilience; system dynamics; community functioning; PUBLIC-HEALTH; COUNTY; BEHAVIOR; THINKING;

D O I：

10.1017/dmp.2017.39

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

Objective: Policy-makers and practitioners have a need to assess community resilience in disasters. Prior efforts conflated resilience with community functioning, combined resistance and recovery (the components of resilience), and relied on a static model for what is inherently a dynamic process. We sought to develop linked conceptual and computational models of community functioning and resilience after a disaster. Methods: We developed a system dynamics computational model that predicts community functioning after a disaster. The computational model outputted the time course of community functioning before, during, and after a disaster, which was used to calculate resistance, recovery, and resilience for all US counties. Results: The conceptual model explicitly separated resilience from community functioning and identified all key components for each, which were translated into a system dynamics computational model with connections and feedbacks. The components were represented by publicly available measures at the county level. Baseline community functioning, resistance, recovery, and resilience evidenced a range of values and geographic clustering, consistent with hypotheses based on the disaster literature. Conclusions: The work is transparent, motivates ongoing refinements, and identifies areas for improved measurements. After validation, such a model can be used to identify effective investments to enhance community resilience.

引用

页码：127 / 137

页数：11

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