Vulnerability assessment of chemical facilities to intentional attacks based on Bayesian Network

被引：53
作者：
Argenti, Francesca [1 ]
Landucci, Gabriele [2 ]
Reniers, Genserik [3 ,4 ,5 ]
Cozzani, Valerio [1 ]
机构：
[1] Alma Mater Studiorum Univ Bologna, LISES, Dipartimento Ingn Civile Chim Ambientale & Mat, Via Terracini 28, I-40131 Bologna, Italy
[2] Univ Pisa, Dipartimento Ingn Civile & Ind, Largo Lucio Lazzarino 1, I-56126 Pisa, Italy
[3] Delft Univ Technol, Safety Sci Grp, Jaffalaan 5, Delft, Netherlands
[4] Univ Antwerp, Engn Management Dept, Res Grp ARGoSS, Prinsstr 13, B-2000 Antwerp, Belgium
[5] Univ Antwerp, Engn Management Dept, Res Grp ANT OR, Prinsstr 13, B-2000 Antwerp, Belgium
来源：
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY | 2018年 / 169卷
关键词：
Security risk; Physical protection systems; Vulnerability; Probabilistic assessment; Bayesian Networks; RISK ANALYSIS; QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT; PROBABILISTIC RISK; DOMINO; SECURITY; SAFETY; TERRORISM; IMPACT; INFRASTRUCTURES; FRAMEWORK;
D O I：
10.1016/j.ress.2017.09.023
中图分类号：
T [工业技术];
学科分类号：
08 ;
摘要：
Chemical facilities may be targets of deliberate acts of interference triggering major accidents (fires, explosion, toxic dispersions) in process and storage units. Standard methodologies for vulnerability assessment are based on qualitative or semi-quantitative tools, currently not tailored for this type of facilities and not accounting for the role of physical protection systems. In the present study, a quantitative approach to the probabilistic assessment of vulnerability to external attacks is presented, based on the application of a dedicated Bayesian Network (BN). BN allowed the representation of interactions among attack impact vectors and resistance of process units, which determine the final outcomes of an attack. A specific assessment of protection systems, based on experts' elicitation of performance data, allowed providing a knowledge support to the evaluation of probabilities. The application to an industrial case study allowed the assessment of the potentialities of the approach, which may support both the evaluation of the vulnerability of a given facility, and the performance assessment of the security physical protection system in place. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：515 / 530
页数：16
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