Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading

被引：40

作者：

Cooper, Laura ^{[1
,2
]}

Kang, Su Yun ^{[3
]}

Bisanzio, Donal ^{[3
,4
,5
]}

Maxwell, Kilama ^{[6
]}

Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel ^{[7
,8
]}

Greenhouse, Bryan ^{[8
]}

Drakeley, Chris ^{[9
]}

Arinaitwe, Emmanuel ^{[6
,9
]}

Staedke, Sarah G. ^{[9
]}

Gething, Peter W. ^{[3
]}

Eckhoff, Philip ^{[10
]}

Reiner, Robert C., Jr. ^{[11
,12
]}

Hay, Simon, I ^{[11
,12
]}

Dorsey, Grant ^{[8
]}

Kamya, Moses R. ^{[13
]}

Lindsay, Steven W. ^{[14
]}

Grenfell, Bryan T. ^{[1
,15
,16
]}

Smith, David L. ^{[11
,12
]}

机构：

[1] Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA

[2] Univ Cambridge, Dept Vet Med, Cambridge, England

[3] Univ Oxford, Li Ka Shing Ctr Hlth Informat & Discovery, Oxford Big Data Inst, Oxford, England

[4] RTI Int, Washington, DC USA

[5] Univ Nottingham, Sch Med, Epidemiol & Publ Hlth Div, Nottingham, England

[6] Infect Dis Res Collaborat, Kampala, Uganda

[7] Johns Hopkins Univ, Dept Epidemiol, Baltimore, MD USA

[8] Univ Calif San Francisco, Dept Med, San Francisco, CA USA

[9] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London, England

[10] Inst Dis Modeling, Bellevue, WA USA

[11] Univ Washington, Sch Med, Dept Hlth Metr Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[12] Univ Washington, Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[13] Makerere Univ, Sch Med, Coll Hlth Sci, Kampala, Uganda

[14] Univ Durham, Sch Biol & Biomed Sci, Durham, England

[15] Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch Publ & Int Affairs, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA

[16] NIH, Fogarty Int Ctr, Bldg 10, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA

来源：

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | 2019年 / 10卷 / 1期

基金：

美国国家卫生研究院; 英国医学研究理事会; 英国惠康基金;

关键词：

TRANSMISSION; DISEASE; BLOOD; IDENTIFICATION; HETEROGENEITY; INFECTION; PEOPLE; SITES;

D O I：

10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 "Pareto" rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80% of transmission is accounted for by 20% of individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It is unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed to certain individuals or whether it is an unpredictable and unavoidable feature of epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria transmission at three sites in Uganda and find that super-spreading is negatively correlated with overall malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting among humans is 90-10 at the lowest transmission intensities declining to less than 70-30 at the highest intensities. For super-spreaders, biting ranges from 70-30 down to 60-40. The difference, approximately half the total variance, is due to environmental stochasticity. Super-spreading is thus partly due to super-spreaders, but modest gains are expected from targeting super-spreaders.

引用

页数：9

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