Demand Profiling and Demand Forecast Using the Active-Aware-Based Ensemble Kalman Filter

The concept of demand profiling is established in order to collect, analyse and develop the detailed knowledge of the consumption habits, either in domestic or non-domestic usage. In this paper the state representation of electrical signal is used as the profiling formula to model the diurnal (daily) and annual cycle demand trend of electricity consumption across the grid. The available demand dataset from the public domain is applied as the input for the profiling formula. The developed demand profile is further to be forecast and assimilated using the active-aware-based Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The resultant EnKF estimations may provide the assessment of nationwide demand within the energy network, thus consider the need for the present and future network reinforcement or upgrades. The ability of EnKF in forecasting the demand is presented, along with the limitations.