The Impact of Future Fuel Consumption on Regional Air Quality in Southeast Asia

Aerosols emitted from fossil fuel burning can cause air quality and human health issues. In this sensitivity study, we examine the impact of fossil fuel aerosols on air quality in Southeast Asia under five different hypothetical fuel consumption scenarios. These scenarios reflect air pollutant outcomes of implementations of certain idealized policies in the power generation, industry, and residential sectors. Analyses based on comparison among the modeling results from these scenarios reveal the sectors that should be targeted by air pollution mitigation policy. The results reveal that in Southeast Asia, sulfate could be decreased by 25% if coal were to be replaced by natural gas in the power generation and industry sectors. Black carbon concentration would reduce 42% overall if biofuel were replaced by natural gas in the residential sector. Shipping emissions are especially critical for the urban air quality in Singapore: fine particular matters (PM2.5) could be dramatically cut by 69% in Singapore by merely eliminating shipping emissions.